In cryptocurrency, even the most seasoned professionals have less than a decade, but you are likely listening to them. Are you sure you should
In cryptocurrency, even the most seasoned professionals have had less than a decade. Many only have a few years. Some have a lot of experience in other areas but no crypto. The technology just hasn’t been around long enough.
In no other industry do you have a few years of experience as an expert.
Get it? For sure.
Knowledgeable? Let’s hope
A good source of information? Yes!
Not an expert.
When you see people who have huge followers or popular books, you might think they have incredible insights that you don’t – although most of the time they all say the same thing.
For a culture that is proud of contrary thinking and rebelling against “the herd”, we certainly do a lot of group think.
Why? Nobody really knows what’s going on. We all have a small piece of a massive puzzle. At best, we have some knowledge, insights, and conclusions about the bigger picture.
Data models abound, but everyone disagrees. Markets move faster than YouTube can. Everyone has their opinion.
A little skepticism goes a long way.
What makes other people’s opinions better than yours?
For most of my twenties, I worked in congressional politics – first as a campaign organizer, then as a congressional advisor, and later as an assistant to the top lobbyist for a Fortune 500 company.
My biggest gain from these jobs?
No matter what the facts say, you will believe whatever you want to believe. At some point someone will come along to take advantage of your beliefs.
In politics you can make a living from it. In fact, there is a whole sub-group in the industry dedicated to this work. It is a skill that some people practice and improve for years.
Those who do well can earn a lot of money as consultants, speechwriters, press officers, speakers, radio hosts and commentators.
These people train their whole lives in how to turn truth into falsehood and how to turn facts into fiction. You will learn how to use semantics, straw man arguments, and distractions to present a false narrative or to keep people away from the truth.
There’s a reason they’re making a lot of money doing it. People will buy into any story they feel good, smart, right, and safe about.
Is this story true or not?
It does not matter.
When I got into cryptocurrency in 2017, I also believed a lot of stories. Pretty much everything the “experts” said.
At the time, they said Bitcoin could never crash because CME futures would make tons of money and Wall Street would buy out the market.
Then Bitcoin crashed, dragging the altcoins with it.
To explain the lag in markets for the first part of 2018, they said, “Asians have been selling crypto to buy gifts for the Chinese New Year. It will bounce back after the holidays.”
As prices continued to fall, they said, “US investors are selling to pay taxes. They will bounce back after the tax season.”
When prices were still falling, they said, “Whales and Wall Street are manipulating prices down, they can’t do this forever, it will bounce back.”
After the market settled by $ 6,000, they said it bottomed out.
Then bitcoin price plummeted another 50% and most altcoins fell 90% or more.
They accused Craig Wright, Roger Ver, governments, ICOs, fraud and everything else they could think of.
You should have blamed yourself.
At the time, all of their arguments made sense to me. I bought them every step of the way, top to bottom and bottom to bottom.
Only later did I find out how this market really works.
In March 2020 everyone apparently thought Bitcoin would rise to $ 1,000, “go back to its 350-week moving average,” and “do an ABC correction.” They said we had a new Great Depression and a collapse of all assets, including crypto. “Deflation, then inflation.”
All of these things were possible. Not only possible, but reasonable expectations for everyone involved in this market at the time.
An honest account of history would tell you these results were unlikely. Bitcoin never fell below its 200-week moving average, and at that point the metrics on the chain were strong.
Sure, it could have turned out differently. If you had convinced yourself of this, you would have missed the golden opportunity.
How about today What stories do you hear
- Bitcoin will soar to $ 288,000 with no major crashes as institutions will never crash it.
- Bitcoin’s price cannot fall below $ 40,000 because stock-to-flow says so.
- Companies will never sell, no matter how much their assets go up or down in price.
- The bull market is ahead of schedule, so prices get twice as high for twice as long.
- The four-year cycle and all other data models have to be adjusted upwards due to all these FOMOs. You cannot contain them. It’s a new paradigm.
- March is always a bad month for the market.
Anything is possible, but you will lose a lot of perspective as you buy into these stories. Is it bad to look at these things from a different angle?
Bitcoin’s price rose 32% in March – hardly a bad month for an asset.
Corporations and institutions exist to make money, not to own bitcoin. Do you think they will fall the next 50% or take no profits during the next 100% pump?
Stock-to-flow and S2Fx allow very large price fluctuations at any point in time.
No asset has ever risen forever.
Keeping a little Fiat “just in case” things don’t go the way everyone expects isn’t the worst thing.
Perhaps the thought leaders and celebrities of Crypto are not as intentionally manipulative as the people who permeate our politics, but they are no less effective – and with the same result:
You end up believing in things that are probably not true.
I am sure Saifedean Ammous did not intentionally present a historically and culturally incorrect portrait of monetary developments in his famous book. The bitcoin standard. He is unlikely to be aware of all of the discoveries historians, psychologists, and anthropologists have made about the human relationship to money and its uses over time.
Or maybe he fired her. As an Austrian economist, he is trained in dogma and orthodoxy. Maybe he doesn’t accept ideas that contradict his worldview?
The story sells. It’s a good story that makes sense.
Crypto is full of good stories that make sense.
That doesn’t mean these stories are true.
Maybe it’s okay to discover your own stories?