The value of Ether (ETH) rose 50% at the high of the London arduous fork as many buyers anticipate the improvement to untangle the excessive transaction fees down and turn the altcoin directly into a deflationary asset.
Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, has predicted that the imminent improvement would likely result in Ether “flipping” Bitcoin (BTC) as the main cryptocurrency, but this is a very controversial concern.
To get the impression of current value promotions, traders should analyze the weekly choices. Deribit derivatives currently hold an 86% market share at this stage and full August 6 curiosity is currently $ 357 million.
The impartial to bullish name choice (purchase) offers customers upward security and the holders of the put choice (promote) are protected against downward movements. By measuring the threat in value of each choice, traders can better understand how bullish or bearish traders are positioned.
Possibility knowledge shows that bears were caught unexpectedly
The preliminary estimate shows a fairly balanced scenario, as the call-to-put ratio is 1.15, which hardly favors the impartial to bullish name choice by 15%. This indicator shows the 70,956 name options representing an open curiosity of $ 191 million stacked with 61,632 put options representing an open curiosity of $ 166 million.
As the graph shows, the bears did not expect Ether to reach USD 2,700 and this can be seen when there are no protective put options (pink space) above this exercise level.
If aether stays above this level by August 6th, all of these 61,653 contracts will zero out. This is extraordinarily unusual and shows how suddenly the strong uptrend was.
The cops’ advantage is largely based on Ether at $ 2,600
While any protective put choice above $ 2,700 will be nullified, among the impartial to bullish name options have been positioned at $ 2,800 and $ 3,000. Because of this, even if Ether stays at $ 2,700, 39% of the $ 191 million excellent curiosity about the decision-making decisions lapses.
At $ 2,700, impartial to bullish name choice has a $ 116 million advantage. However, if Ether trades below $ 2,600 on Aug 6, that amount will drop to $ 75 million.
In any case, these weekly decisions largely favor bulls and add to their reserves for additional bets for the upcoming August expiry. Bears should band together to lick their wounds and look forward to excessive area before attempting new bearish election deals.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the author only and do not, in essence, represent the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every step of investing and buying and selling comes with threats, so do your personal analysis as you make a choice.