Bitcoin (BTC) may now have its worst monthly candle in 10 years, but it could still soar to new all-time highs this year, popular analyst PlanB said.
In one Tweet On Tuesday, the creator of the stock-to-flow-based BTC pricing models said Bitcoin was behaving as it did during its 2013 bull run.
Stock-to-flow “intact” after decline in May
After its drop to $ 30,000 and several retests of that level, concerns emerge about a larger drop driving BTC / USD towards $ 20,000 and below.
This would mean that Bitcoin is breaking the all-time high from a previous bull market, in this case from 2017, for the first time.
For PlanB, however, such an event is unlikely. Furthermore, the latest price action is far from unknown – in fact, it could only mean that the market is refreshing its performance from 2013, not 2017.
While uploading the latest incarnation of his stock-to-flow cross-asset model (S2FX), he highlighted similarities between 2021 and the behavior of Bitcoin from years ago.
“New point: Can close $ 37,341 .. -35% .. We knew that Bitcoin would not go up in a straight line and multiple declines of -35% are possible (and indeed likely) in a bull market,” he wrote in the accompanying comments.
“Looks like 2013. S2F (X) model intact.”
New all-time highs still in play
S2FX places Bitcoin in stages as it goes from a fringe phenomenon to a full-blown asset class. His ambitious projections call for an average BTC price of $ 288,000 during the current halving cycle, which runs between 2020 and 2024.
The pullback sparked questions about the longevity of the model that PlanB has always emphasized that are not guaranteed.
Nonetheless, the 2013 narrative remains a strong contender for explaining Bitcoin’s wild ride this year, with its requirements still being met by the market.
As Cointelegraph reported, accumulation practices among long-term owners can lead to a “double-top” scenario in 2021 as well – just like in 2013.
For veteran trader Peter Brandt, who advocates such a scenario this week, a rush to new all-time highs could only come after another dramatic retreat. However, this in itself would also be consistent with historical precedents.